History shows a disruptive technology’s tipping point can be under 5% of market share, that’s all it takes. The number of horses in use peaked in the U.S. once car ownership reached 3%. Gas lighting in the UK peaked with electric lighting at just 2% of the market. Landline phones in the U.S. fell precipitously after mobiles captured 5% of the market. Ji Chen and Koben Calhoun at RMI argue the tipping point has already been passed for solar, wind, battery storage and EVs. The clearest sign is the decline in oil prices and the stock market performance of the oil and gas majors. The authors of this article present their evidence on those clean energy champions, and predict exponential growth as they scale up further.
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